2008 Stats agents don't want you to see

Update Aug. 8: We first published this on our website back in April and we've been updating the graphs every month since. Some of you may feel the information is a little too blunt, but, truth be told, if you want to sell your house in this market you need to be aware of current conditions.

But you don't have to take our word for it anymore. Mainstream media are finally beginning to report the market change, including this Globe and Mail story (click here) which resonates with many of our previously-stated points.

And remember, only ComFree can give you the ability to price your home significantly less than your MLS-listed neighbour – and walk away with the same amount of money in your wallet.

Since the beginning of 2008, the real estate market has been in tough territory for home sellers. Listings are up, solds are down, and the resulting inventory (total number of homes for sale) is reaching record-high levels. As we mentioned previously (Article#1, Article#2) – 2008 is a tough year to sell your home. And there is no change in sight.

Yet the organizations that you are supposed to trust and count on are not giving you the full story. Last week, the Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley boards released their April numbers. The Vancouver board stated its members had 7,010 new listings and 3,218 solds, while Fraser Valley stated its members had 4,458 new listings and 1,787 solds. The solds are a slight decrease, but listings for both the Fraser Valley and Vancouver boards were an incredible 26% and 53% increase, respectively, over April 2007. These numbers were also printed in a May 3 Vancouver Sun article.

Unfortunately, but understandably, many of you probably just see these numbers as a simple blip in Metro Vancouver’s unstoppable real estate market. Unfortunate, because these numbers are part of a bigger picture that show Metro Vancouver’s real estate market has changed. A change that is not good news if you’ve been contemplating selling or have already been selling with an agent this year.

Yet it’s understandable, because the listing and sold numbers on their own don’t show you the whole picture. For that you have to do a little math and look at the history. And the boards, for their own reasons, are not doing the math for you or giving you the history, so you’re being denied the full story.

As an example, nowhere does it state in the above-mentioned Sun article that April’s listing and sold numbers resulted in sold-to-list* values of 46% and 40% for Vancouver and Fraser Valley, respectively. Also nowhere does it state that this is a continuing trend that started at the beginning of the year, or a trend that is very different from past years. But the article does have Dave Watt, president of the Greater Vancouver board, stating, “there are "lots of buyers," and the fact that houses, on average, sold more quickly in April speaks to their confidence. It took an average of six fewer days to sell a home than it did in the previous year. That is probably as telling as anything."

A wonderfully positive spin, but do you realize the sold-to-list rate last April was 60% and this year is 46%? In other words, the majority of sellers who haven’t sold are supposed to take comfort in the fact the lucky few who are selling are doing so a little more quickly.

As another example, both boards love to talk about how prices continue to increase. But if you talk to the 60% in the Fraser Valley and the 52% in Greater Vancouver who HAVE NOT sold this year those price increases are of little comfort.

It appears the real estate industry wants to keep the vast majority of would-be sellers like you misinformed with spin and sleight of hand.

We’re not surprised. If boards actually gave you the full picture you might come to re alize an agent doesn’t make marketing and economical sense … and then you might search for alternatives like ComFree Private Sales.

And no industry that made roughly $1 billion in commissions last year from your home’s equity would want that …

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The real picture is in the accompanying graphs*, which show the sold-to-list values of this year against the previous four years (the data was obtained from previous press releases put out by the boards). We hope the graphs are not too shocking for you, but it’s the truth and the real picture of what the Lower Mainland’s real estate market actually looks like.

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In addition to the graphs, the facts are:

• The low sold-to-list means re-sale home inventory has now ballooned to multi-year highs. As a result, buyers now have the freedom to search for, and only purchase, the most competitively-priced homes. Homes that are not competitively priced will not sell.


• Listing with an agent in this market will only mean: A. You’ll be jumping into a market where statistics show your chances of selling are as low as 40%. B. If you don’t want to be part of the 52-60% not selling, you’ll have to reduce your price and take a hit on your hard-earned equity. C. You’re still going to be charged the same outrageous commission for services that have become increasingly ineffective.


• Only listing with ComFree gives you the advantage of being able to be price-competitive in this over-supplied market. With us, you don’t have to factor in an agent’s commission into your asking price. That allows you to sell at a lower price than your agent-listed neighbour – but quicker and with the same money in your pocket. ComFree wants you to know the whole picture because if you’re with us and armed with the facts, this tighter market can actually work to your advantage.

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*For those of you unfamiliar with the sold-to-list percentage, it’s a calculation of total solds divided by total listings (x100). If the sample data is large enough and pooled from long time frames (i.e. – Monthly, quarterly, or yearly); the resulting values are a simple but good indication of general market conditions that show how hard or easy it will be to market your home. High values indicate high demand and low supply (Sellers’ market), while low values indicate low demand and high supply (Buyers’ market).

Greater Vancouver Board
Sold-To-List: 2004-2008

	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sept	Oct	Nov	Dec
2004	64%	78%	77%	72%	61%	63%	63%	64%	58%	74%	77%	117%
2005	51%	75%	77%	71%	87%	91%	89%	83%	47%	77%	90%	134%
2006	55%	68%	70%	75%	74%	72%	63%	67%	49%	52%	74%	111%
2007	44%	69%	66%	61%	70%	77%	79%	77%	58%	63%	85%	89%
2008	39%	51%	55%	46%	41%	37%	36%	36%	26%

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Fraser Valley Board
Sold-To-List: 2004-2008

	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sept	Oct	Nov	Dec
2004	52%	70%	78%	75%	72%	58%	62%	61%	58%	52%	52%	89%
2005	45%	67%	68%	74%	70%	92%	71%	97%	68%	81%	87%	106%
2006	55%	67%	82%	77%	82%	72%	62%	65%	54%	46%	61%	94%
2007	41%	55%	52%	61%	58%	67%	64%	63%	51%	47%	62%	110%
2008	34%	47%	40%	40%	41%	44%	34%	36%	32%

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